Forty-One: Reappraising The Consecutive Outs Streak

Five thousand seven hundred and fourteen strikeouts.

Two thousand six hundred and thirty-two consecutive games played.

Seven hundred and sixty-two taters ([{*}]).

A four hundred batting average.

Fifty-six consecutive games with a hit.

Forty-one consecutive outs.

Huh?

All right, perhaps that last number lacks the hallowed recognition bestowed upon some of baseball's other great achievements by the custodians of the game, the arbiters of truth and justice: the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA -- egad, that reads like a craigslist personal ad!).

Why is this feat so unheralded? It is, after all, a feat shared by only two pitchers; a former Giants starter, Jim Barr; and the current White Sox closer, Big Bad Bobby Jenks. Barr first set the consecutive outs record over two starts in August 23rd and 29th of 1972 (neither of which was a no-hitter or perfect game); Jenks' tying of the record occurred over a span of fourteen appearances between July 17th and August 12th of the 2007 season. Bobby's achievement is sui generis in that all previous record holders were starting pitchers, and this warrants stricter scrutiny.

In and of itself, facing forty-one hitters in a row without so much as a hit, walk, or hit batsman is no small exploit. It is tantamount to pitching one-and-a-half perfect games. To accomplish this feat as a closer is surely a singular experience: a closer has no idea when he will be called upon, what team or what part of the order he will be opposing, and faces the less-than-optimal possibility of inheriting a situation from another pitcher where the run expectancy is higher than it would be if the closer enters the game at the top of an inning with no one on and no one out. To pitch one-and-a-half perfect games, a starting pitcher in the American League (Jenks is a closer in the AL) would essentially face nine hitters three times each in one start, then retire the first fourteen batters (1.55 times through the lineup) in his next start. A closer could conceivably face forty-one distinct hitters in pursuing the consecutive outs streak, as they typically pitch one inning per appearance. Jenks' case is an aberrant one with many exogenous factors; a more discerning examination of his streak will go a long way toward deciding how plaudit-worthy of an achievement it really was.

Bobby Jenks is an anomaly in that he entered baseball armed with a sizzling 98-100 mph (once clocked at 102 mph) fastball and, in the span of just a couple of seasons underwent a transformation into a finesse pitcher. The year in which he pursued the streak, 2007, represents the first year of that metamorphosis. Jenks saw his k/9 dip to a copacetic 7.75 after posting k/9's of 10.33 and 11.44 in the two seasons prior. In a show of his newfound finesse, Jenks posted a career high strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.31; needless to say, he remained a very effective closer. Bobby's k rate during the months of the streak was a modest 7.25, hardly the dominating stuff one would expect of someone in pursuit of a consecutive outs record. To have a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .000 over a thirteen-inning span with anything less than an astronomical k rate is an example of preternatural luck, to say the least. However, to do this with a White Sox defense behind him that was second to worst in the AL, is truly remarkable. Thirty of the forty-one batters put the ball in play against Jenks and not one of these balls found a hole or a gap in what was, by every discernible measure, one of the most porous defenses in the league that year.

What about the level of difficulty encountered by Jenks? During Barr's streak he faced batters from two NL teams (the Cards and Pirates) who posted a .248AVG/.319OBP/.364SLG against the rest of the National League that year (1972). Jenks, on the other hand, faced much stiffer competition facing batters from six different AL teams who hit .264/.337/.407 off American League pitching in 2007. It is evident that Jenks had the tougher row to hoe in pursuing the streak. Below is a look at how many times Jenks faced each part of the lineup, from the lead-off spot to the ninth man in the order.

1-4 times
2-2 times
3-1 time
4-3 times
5-3 times
6-6 times
7-6 times
8-9 freakin' times!
9-7 times

More conspicuous signs of luck? Perhaps. After all, Jenks did face this guy three times in the course of the streak -- more than any other hitter. Facing the third batter in a lineup just once over a span of fourteen appearances while coming up against the No. 8 hitter nine times is more than just blessed happenstance. It is the perfect storm; and, like all of nature's beasts, it deserves due approbation lest it become a seasonal scourge on the sagacity our great custodians confer upon the sport and its sacred sanctum of numbers. Forty-one may not be as big of a number as fifty-six, or as sexy a number as seven hundred and sixty-two* (chicks just don't dig the groundball, Bobby), but it deserves its place at the Kaaba. Besides, if Jenks was closing for the Yankees or Red Sox in 2007, ESPN would still be talking about it, with John Kruk ready to proclaim Bobby Jenks' season the greatest of all-time for a closer and and other such hyperbole.

* Individual results may vary.