10&5 Official Team Preview: Cardinal Power

They must be eating some strange cheese steaks in Philly for them to think for a second that they could ever trade Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols. Other than youth, there is no upside for the Cardinals to make the deal. The Machine had an average almost 50 points higher, an on-base percentage over 80 points higher, and a slugging percentage nearly 100 points higher. Need I say more? Albert Pujols is the class of the National League, as the reigning, defending, unanimous MVP. And guess what, kids… he is showing no signs of stopping.

On top of that, St. Louis fans don’t just get a chance to see the world’s best active hitter; they also get to see two guys who finished 2 and 3 in the Cy Young voting. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright had spectacular seasons. Both of whom were well deserving of taking the title from our favorite pot-smoking Washington native.

The Cardinals have an embarrassment of riches. Add an All-Star catcher (Yadier Molina) and left fielder (Matt Holliday) into this mix, and you’ve got a team that will not only win the NL Central, but potentially a pennant and some trophy with 30 flags on it as well.

* Biggest Strength

The Cardinals were fourth in the league in ERA, were second-to-last in giving up homeruns, and tied for third in the league in total bases allowed. This pitching staff is stingy. If you want to score runs on them, I’d recommend you go up to the plate with a shovel instead of a baseball bat.

* Biggest Weakness

When it comes to hitting, despite their prodigious producers, they pretty much are second tier. Albeit top of the second tier, but second tier none the less. They were seventh in the league in runs scored, sixth in SLG and tenth in OBP last year. This happens when the rest of the supporting cast doesn’t carry the load. The fate of the Cardinals will not rely on how the big sluggers do, but how the rest of the lineup serves to complement the team’s All-Stars.

* Player to Watch Out For

In 2007, P Brad Penny started the All-Star game for the National League. A couple bad years in Boston and a resurgent effort with the Giants later, Penny has a shot to reclaim his former form. The Cardinals are betting on that chance, having pretty much replaced P Joel Piniero’s spot in the rotation with Penny. A bad year from Penny would leave the Cardinals in a tough situation.

* Best Case Scenario

The supporting cast to the MVPs, All-Stars and Cy Young candidates of this team step it up and makes this a year to remember for the Cardinals. There aren’t a lot of obstacles for this team to claim a world championship.

* Worst Case Scenario

Considering that they are in the same division as the struggling Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Astros, and Pirates… if the Cardinals were to have a boat load of injuries, I still see them topping the NL Central. Not a bad place to be if that’s your worst case scenario. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Journey To The End Of The East Bay - The Oakland A's

The cupboard is bare. The Oakland A's baseball club headed into the 2010 season has already had all salable parts removed and sold. What's left is a scrappy squad of not-exactly-the-best-at-their-trade millionaires that the other MLB franchises didn't think could help their respective teams.

No one worth lifting is left. The Athletics' roster has been picked clean by Those-That-Have in recent years. Rookie Of The Year-winning CP Andrew Bailey, if he continues to convert saves, could be a bullpen cog somewhere else. (Was that a depressing sentence to read? It was a depressing sentence to write.)

Now that most MLB teams are using the savvy "Moneyball" player-selecting techniques pioneered by OAK's celebrated GM/part-owner Billy Beane but backing their analysis up with spending power well past what Oakland has, the A's aren't able to compete with everyone else working the same angles that once only they saw.

"What you gonna do when everybody goes on without you?" -- Rancid, "Journey To The End Of The East Bay"

So, what now? Can Beane adapt? Will owner & managing partner Lew Wolff continue trying to move the team to a new location? In the midst of all this falling rubble, the Athletics seem evermore to belong in Oakland: the team, such as they are on the field, represent the dogged upstartness of the East Bay. The A's are underdogs and are trying to make their own way as best they can despite the odds stacked against them. "They just need to stay where they are!" said an exasperated Flora Rogers, official 10&5 grandmother and A's correspondent. Will they? Can they? What does the future hold for this baseball club?

Photo of GM Billy Beane and SP Ben Sheets via hawkfantasysports.wordpress.com.

* Biggest Strength:

Pitching (on paper.) Both the number-one and number-two pitchers for Oakland are former All-Star starters with great stuff. On paper. Both Ben Sheets (no pitches thrown in 2009 with a torn elbow flexor tendon) and Justin Duchscerer (pronounced "DUKE-shur;" no pitches thrown in 2009 with back, shoulder and depression issues) are followed by horrific histories of injury. This pair have been seeing the inside of doctors' offices more than the tops of pitching mounds in recent years. Not everyone can have a Frank Gore story of excelling post-injury. These two gents could be great once more, but what is unknowable is how much milage is left in each of their arms. Classify their Beane-blessed signings and installations as high-risk, high-reward.

* Biggest Weakness:

Bat-on-ball offense. As said, the cupboard is bare.

"No one is worried about the A's batting order," said 10&5 A's correspondent and Oakland über-fan Tony Bernacchi. "There's a serious power void besides [DH Jack] Cust. [New 3B] Kevin Kouzmanoff can't protect Cust." Indeed. He couldn't protect the Padres' single excellent slugger 1B Adrian Gonzalez in San Diego either. It's a show-me year for Kouz.

The one and two hitters are speedsters; the wily LF Rajai Davis as leadoff and the fragile-shouldered CF Coco Crisp behind him. The A's have no bats that an opposing team feel they have to account especially for, short of the free-swinging Cust.

* Players to Watch Out For:

SP Ben Sheets. The former four-time All-Star 98/MPH fireballer has signed on the dotted line for a $10M one-year contract. He didn't throw a pitch in 2009, yet he is slated to be Oakland's Opening Day starter.

But mayday, witness this: today in a spring game, Sheets allowed 10 runs, nine of them earned, without getting a single out. Against the Reds. For a pitcher, even in a practice game, this result of maximum failure is reason for maximum consternation.

* Best Case Scenario:

Despite the whirl of negatives, 10&5 A's correspondent DJ Burrito is convinced that if things matriculate correctly, Oakland can make the post-season.

"They could sneak in as a wild card. Nothing special," said the DJ, "I just think that if they are able to win 10 more games this year, they will be competitive in the AL West. If not, they will be third."

Bernacchi agreed that the A's could surprise, but "They're not a playoff team," he said. "They've got a shot only because of the AL West."

Getting a shot of any sort is contingent on the healthiness of gentlemen who have spent a lot of time recovering from being hurt.

* Worst Case Scenario:

Worst case? The A's are already there. This is it. There is no worse situation in baseball than the one that the A's are in. No stars, no budget, arguably the worst stadium in baseball (despite its unvarnished charm), and an inept ownership that tried to move the team but couldn't. There is no farther to fall professionally excepting of the ultimate fear of obliviating contraction. Can the A's franchise push off of this figurative bottom-of-the-pool? Because they're there. This is the bottom. This is the end.

Photo of the Oakland Coliseum via baseballpilgrimages.com. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Cuba Libre – The Cincinnati Reds

When heralded young Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman defected from his homeland and became available on the US open market, the usual suspects began their bidding war. The Red Sox opened at around $15 million, but soon more than a dozen teams were rumored to be in the mix for the lefty’s services, even small market clubs like the Marlins. And then, like that, he was gone. To… the Reds? For $30 million!? That’s right, welcome to Ohio, Mr. Chapman. Don’t cross the river.

For a team that has long seemed on the brink, Chapman could be the piece to lead them back to the post-season promised land. His early returns out of Arizona have been, well, damn impressive. Any time you can add an arm with that kind of potential without even losing a draft pick (either by spending it on the player or by acquiring a Class A or B free agent), you have to try.

The best move the organization may have made in the last couple years though, was appointing former Cardinals front man Walt Jocketty as GM. If Chapman is a sign of things to come in the Jocketty years, there is reason to believe again in a city that hasn’t seen a playoff team since 1995.

* Biggest Strength

This is really hard to say. The Reds have an intriguing mix of seasoned vets and young talent, so I’ll risk the ire and abuse of my fellow writers and go with “balance”. Brandon Phillips is one of the best second basemen in the game and has proven players in Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera, Ramon Hernandez and the enigmatic, potential All-Star Joey Votto around him on the infield. The rotation is led by decent veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but loaded with young talent behind, waiting in the wings. Francisco Cordero has quietly become one of the most solid closers in the league, compiling 117 saves since ’07, third-best in the Majors.

*Biggest Weakness

The fates. First there is the curse of Dusty Baker. The man who was ridden out of both San Francisco and Chicago for his mismanagement of young arms will be put to the test this year with Chapman and the (eventual) return of Edinson Volquez, not to mention Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. If he continues to play older, less-talented players without results, may we see the end of the Baker era? A man can dream.

* Players to Watch Out For

A lot of people like to write off prospects as busts once they have a bad year. I’m willing to bet that Jay Bruce will make big strides to shed that title this season. It’s easy to forget how young he is - he will turn just 23 a couple days before the season begins. Same goes for Cueto (24). If the Reds can find a way to squeeze Yonder Alonso into left field, it may make up for the power void that opened up when Adam Dunn was shipped out of town. Chris Dickerson is also a freakish athlete still trying to convert that potential into baseball productivity. He is a poor man’s five-tool player who gives the team versatility across the outfield.

* Best Case Scenario

The range of potential outcomes for the Reds’ season may be as wide as for any team in the league. The NL Central appears to be the Cardinals’ division to lose, but they are not without their question marks. Could Cincinnati step in and steal the division? It would require literally everything to fall into place, but I think it’s possible. Cueto, Bruce, Bailey and Chapman all have breakout years. Harang and Arroyo return to being solid, inning-eating starters. EVERYBODY STAYS HEALTHY. Even if the Cardinals don’t falter, a heavy dose of games against weak divisional competition could land the Reds a Wild Card birth.

* Worst Case Scenario

Dusty runs Chapman out until his labrum looks like Brad Radke’s. Volquez never returns. Joey Votto’s inner-ear imbalance resurfaces. Bruce is a bust, and Arroyo sets the Major League record for home runs allowed in a season. The phrase “squandered potential” is heard for the tenth straight season on the streets of Cincinnati, and it isn’t even football season yet. One of the Astros/Pirates/Brewers save the Reds the shame of the only sixth place finish possible in the sport. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: This Is (Not) The Year - The Chicago Cubs

It has been a long time coming and it finally happened for the Northsiders!

No, not winning it all, obviously. But this off-season the Cubs finally managed to do two things that seemed impossible: they shipped the clubhouse party-pooper Milton Bradley out of town and, more importantly, Sam Zell and Tribune Co. officially sold the organization.

Admittedly, getting Carlos Silva in exchange for Bradley can hardly be called a boon for the Cubs. But two unquestionable benefits make the albatross (either Silva himself or his contract, your choice) the Cubs took on worthwhile. Somehow they conned Seattle Mariners' GM Jack Zduriencik into throwing a chunk of money their way. Assuming Silva is as bad as advertised, and there is no reason to expect otherwise, the Cubs saved $6 million by dealing Bradley, even if they cut Silva. Removing the clubhouse pariah is the second positive from the deal. All off-season Cubs players were noticeably quiet in their support for his side of the story. While not being so classless as to celebrate his departure, the players' relief is almost tangible. Don't under-estimate the importance of team chemistry when the team plays 81 games in probably the smallest clubhouse in either league.

* Biggest Strength

With an opening day payroll expected to be around $135 million, it seems peculiar that no area of strength immediately comes to mind. Over the past few years, the starting rotation could easily qualify. Two years ago, the offense was extremely potent. But this year? The rotation may still win that title but it is obviously weaker than last year considering Ted Lilly is starting the season on the DL and the crapshoot that is the 5th starter competition. Rich Harden's departure was a big blow but a financial necessity. Derek Lee (average OPS of .930 for the Cubs, excluding the 2006 injury-plagued season) and Aramis Ramirez (OPS of at least .898 every year since first full year with Cubs in 2004) will continue to anchor the offense.

* Biggest Weakness

With an opening day payroll expected to be around $135 million, it seems peculiar that so many areas of weakness immediately come to mind. The bullpen is projected to be loaded with rookies and inexperienced pitchers. 2B is a black hole. Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano need to prove they can still hit.

* Players To Watch Out For

The name on everybody's list is SS Starlin Castro. The 19 year old, rated as the Cubs' top prospect, is being hailed by the brass as the player of the future. The problem with that is the Cubs have previously ordained Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, and Mark Prior as the next great player. As of March 11, Castro was batting .571 in spring training and is a wiz in the field. But the Cubs are determined to go slowly with him. They refuse to even experiment with Ryan Theriot at 2B. The double-play combo of Castro-Theriot could be a huge offensive and defensive upgrade and both positions if Castro is able to make the adjustment to the major leagues. I expect to see Castro on the big league club before September, but when and for how long is a mystery.

* Best Case Scenario

Everybody stays healthy, unlike last year. Lou Piniella was able to play his opening day lineup only 2-3 times all season. After losing 40 lbs this off-season Soto rediscovers his rookie success. Soriano learns that he can't hit the low and away slider. The Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot platoon at 2B is not an automatic out. Carlos Marmol does not lose the strike zone for weeks on end. One of the young relievers manifests his inner Andrew Bailey. If all this happens, a wild card birth for October baseball is not out of the question.

* Worst Case Scenario

Since joining the 40-40 club in 2006, Soriano's OPS has steadily dropped from .911 to .726. That slide continues. But the Cubs being the Cubs refuse to bench him. Soto proves to be a one hit wonder. Carlos Zambrano shows that his nine win season from a year ago was no fluke but that his no-no against the Astros in 2008 was. Because the expectations for this year are not as high as in years past, a .500 record would not be the end of the world. The real danger lies in the off-season. Lee's contract is expiring and the Cubs have expressed no interest in an extension. With no replacement available, the right side of the infield could be extremely unproductive. Making matters worse, Ramirez has an opt-out clause at the end of the year which he may be tempted to exercise.
Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: The 2010 Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Hannibal Hamlins have always assumed a tertiary stead in the AL East horse race. In the morning after the glory of their storied '08 World Series run, the Rays were encumbered with the lofty task of ending decades of Yankees/Red Sox hegemony. Alas and fearful alack, 2009 would usher in a season of diminishing returns. A rather unprepossessing regular season record of 84-78 would cause less discerning folk to effect a hackneyed narrative of inevitable regression and a return to the hallowed status quo. At TenAndFiveGuys however, we understand the importance of burning a few bridges in order to make a boat. Let's take a more exacting look at last year's Rays team as well as the club's prospects heading into the 2010 season.

According to BaseballProspectus's adjusted standings, the Rays were a true talent 92-win team, placing them in front of the Red Sox for last year's Wild Card spot. The Rays were among the major league leaders in wOBA (Weighted On Base Average), ranking fourth overall at a .366 clip. In addition, the club boasted the second highest UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in the league, averaging 10.6 runs above average. Objective measurements place the team's pitching smack in the middle of the American League; a ranking that places them ahead of two of last year's playoff teams -- the Angels and Twins. On a side note, does anyone else find it odd that the only place to find sortable, if slapdash, bullpen stats is on MLB.COM? True story.

When presented with the full picture, it is reasonable to assert that the promulgators of conventional thinking are wrong yet again. That thinking being that the Rays should always be considered longshots to make the playoffs in any given year because of the rigorous division in which they play. All things being equal (fat chance), the 2009 Rays were deserving of a playoff spot and were not that far removed from the Cinderella team of yesteryear. This year the Rays will be looking to shake the unseemly "best third-place team in baseball" epithet, and appear to be in a good position to do so.

Jettisoning Special K (who was especially K-less!) at the end of last year was, in all likelihood, a good move. Seeing a precipitous decline in the velocity of his fastball, SP Scott Kazmir relied more heavily on his unremarkable slider. Coupled with his perennial trips to the DL each year, it was perhaps best to leave him to languish in the land of attrition. Have fun with that. Oh yeah, they also ousted Andy Sun-don't-shine. Huzzah!

The team's projected rotation for the 2010 season is as follows: James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. While there may be not be a bona fide ace in that bunch, you do have a lot of solid No. 2's and and a few 3's from top to bottom. Promising prospect and tentative No. 5 starter Davis was impressive in his brief debut last year, posting a 2.90 FIP and K/9 rate of 8.92 in just 36 innings of work. It is highly possible that the team's putative ace, one Mr. James Shields, could well have lowest K rate of any of the starting five this year. The much-beloved and ballyhooed David Price should continue to grow this year, though it is hard to see him posting an FIP under 4 by season's end, as he continues to struggle with his command, his woeful slider, and his underwhelming K/9 totals.



Arguably the most important thing the Rays did this off-season was to clean out the Augean stables in their overworked, aging bullpen. The Front Office scored a coup in the acquiring of the Arbitrarian Contrarian Rafael Soriano, who boasted a phenomenal 12.13 K rate and 2.54 FIP last year with the Braves. Soriano will add much needed ballast to the Rays' pen as well as a good dose of Rolaids™ in the 9th inning.

Looking much like the team that was 4th overall in OPS and 7th in runs scored, the Rays hope to build on breakout seasons from middle infielders Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett. The awesome augurs at PECOTA have proffered respective lines of 270/.378/.483 and .282/.351/.407 for this coming season. Not too shabby, even with an understandable expectation of regression for Mr. Bartlett. Throw a healthy B.J. Upton and rapacious Carl Crawford into the mix and it's hard to find a reason why the Rays won't have the highest Speed Score in the Majors again this year.

This brings us to the real grist for the mill, sluggers Evan Longoria (he's freaking 24, an age where most of us are fiddling around with Microsoft Excel) and Carlos Pena. It might be brazen to suggest that, given an improbable total of 1300 Plate Appearances between them, you could well see an 80 home run tandem this year, giving the Rays an invidious cavalcade of 1-6 hitters. Now if only Pat "The Bat" Burrell would stop paying homage to his 2003 season, as he did last year, with a .682 OPS and nary a tater against left-handing pitching, the Rays would have formidable power, speed, and patience throughout the lineup. Suffice it to say that this is not your crusty but benign sports analyst's best third-place team in baseball. Playoffs? Peut-être. Veremos. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Outdoor Baseball In Minnesota

The Twins, arguably, played the best baseball game of the entire 2009 year on their 163rd regular season game. It was the last glorious night in Metrodome Twins' history, as the Yankees completed the Division Series sweep against them in the final game in Metrodome history. Given that there hasn’t been a whole lot of movement with the Twins this offseason, except for the signings of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, one of the biggest questions will be, how will the Twins play in Target Field?

Let’s face it, given the rash of new ballpark openings and every sports architecture firm doing their best at play “balancing”, we simply don’t know how a ballpark will favor hitters or pitchers. The Mets had no clue how much their new ballpark played a role in David Wright’s power drought. The Yankees didn’t know they had the next band box. Bottom line is Target Field itself has the potential to make or break Minnesota. And let’s not yet talk about any home field advantage of playing outdoors in the cold of Minnesota for a potential playoff berth.

*Biggest Strength:

Their offense ranked 4th in on-base percentage, 3rd in batting average, and 4th in runs scored last year in the American League. Justin Morneau, Mike Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel will bring a fair amount of production, especially when anchored by reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer. Orlando Hudson will surely provide an offensive boost and a perennially hungry Jim Thome will add his spark. Put it this way, up and down the Twins lineup are hitters that give pitchers nightmares. Expect a lot of runs, unless the ballpark says otherwise.

*Biggest Weakness:

It’s easy to blame the pitching staff… but with the numbers they put up last year and the lack of movement in signing quality pitchers, you have to blame the pitching staff again. They surrendered 4.50 team ERA and gave up more homeruns than everyone except the Orioles in the American League. Carl Pavano cannot be their long term answer and the Twins are desperate to get Francisco Liriano back to his 2006 form. Luckily the Twins have a wonderfully-crafted offense to keep them in the game when their starting pitchers decide to take an early rest.

*Players to Watch Out For:

Jason Kubel’s Average OPS, Slugging, Homers, and RBIs have increased year over year for the past three years. He’s a relative unknown buried in a star powered offense, but another increase in production means he’s on Mauer’s level of offensive fortitude. If Kubel keeps working his magic, the Twins can be scary.

*Best Case Scenario:

Liriano finds his 2006 form, Carl Pavano finds his 2004 form, and Joe Nathan has his annual spectacular season (hoping his current pitching arm scare is just a scare). This combined with their hitting means they are a force in the American League. Should they hit a groove early on in the season and not need a 163rd game to get into the playoffs. Expect them to go deep. Way deep.

*Worst Case Scenario:

Target Field becomes Coors Field central. The Twins' ERA balloons to over 5.00 for the season. As good as their hitting is, the inconsistency of the pitching staff combined with the friendly confines of Target Field makes it impossible for the team to remain competitive in a division where the Tigers (now with a SOBER Miguel Cabrera) are ever looming. Read More!

In Defense Of Fantasy Baseball

First off, thanks to AJ for starting with the 2010 team previews, and to JP for getting this season rolling; the latter's post was provocative enough that I didn't feel satisfied with the comments section rejoinder that he requested, so here's my personal defense of fantasy baseball.

Baseball (and pretty much every audience-centric sport) retains its popularity due partly to the fact that it's fun to talk about it with other fans. The examples are obvious and subject to numerous writerly paeans: going to the stadium with your dad, watching the game at your friend's house or at your favorite bar with the colorful old locals who watched Willie Mays play, &c.

I believe the coolest part of fantasy baseball is how it widens the field of discourse. Prior the 2004 inauguration of my team, The Flying Stud Farm, I was guilty of the geographical myopia that infects most fans. There's no way I could have named for you the starting rotation on any American League team, but I'm pretty sure I knew what every starter on the Giants' favorite ice cream was at some point.

But with my involvement in fantasy baseball, suddenly the abilities of marginal players on other teams was of interest. Match-ups in games between the Royals and Rangers became interesting. In order to gain a competitive advantage in scouting new talent, I familiarized myself with each team's farm system and discovered the pleasures of following multiple levels of minor league baseball. I found out that explaining performance as the result of thinly disguised magic intangibles is way less fun than investigating the actual causes.

And while I will concede that this level of engagement does change one's rooting interests in many cases, I posit that it's usually from general apathy to active engagement. Someone who roots for his or her fantasy superstars over a hometown team is a self-centered douche, whose obnoxious behavior is due to vanity way more than any sort of structural flaw inherent in imaginary leagues. If you approach fantasy baseball like a real, passionate fan, it can make you a smarter fan. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Troubled Times - The Houston Astros

In the ebb and flow of baseball supremacy, bad teams are awarded higher draft rights in efforts to help offset their misfortunes and give the league competitive balance. Some teams use those picks well, manage their farm system carefully and build towards a prosperous future, understanding that it may take a few years of finishing sub .500 before they can even sniff a shot at glory. The Rays, Marlins, A’s and Twins have all been able to accomplish this over the last decade in spite of limited payrolls.

And then you have the Astros, the old Colt .45s, who stick to their guns long after it’s become apparent that they no longer fire. A decade of uninspired drafts, embarrassing personnel decisions and general asshattery from the front office has left them a shell of a baseball organization that is staring at only one possible future: the Houston Astros are going to be bad for a long time.

Gone from last year’s squad that finished 74-88 is Miguel Tejada, leaving a gaping hole at shortstop. The projected Opening Day starter there right now is Tommy Manzela, whose five career Major League at-bats evidently don’t scare Astros' General Manager Ed Wade (or chairman/CEO Drayton McLane). Of course, Wade is the man who traded Brad Lidge, then swapped the entire farm system for the now-departed Tejada and Jose Valverde.

Meanwhile, Pedro Feliz takes over at third base. Yikes.

With Lance Berkman already hurt in Spring Training, it may be time to dig in your heels for a long season on the gulf. Hey, we’ve gotta start these previews somewhere - it might as well be at the bottom.

* Biggest Strength:

Starting pitching. Seriously. Well, maybe. Roy Oswalt was a top-five starter in the National League until last year. His previous worsts: 14 wins, 3.54 ERA. Last year, 8 wins, 4.12 ERA. His WHIP was still pretty good at 1.24, but he matched the lowest GO/AO ratio of his career at 1.19, a troubling sign. Wandy Rodriguez is coming off a career year that saw him shatter his highs in wins and strikeouts and finally return to a groundball pitcher after two years in Zito-land. Brett Myers strengthens the middle of the rotation and gives the team another veteran, albeit a mediocre one. The Brandon Backe experiment appears to have finally reached an end, allowing Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino to show if there is any promise (any at all will do, really) coming out of the farm system.

* Biggest Weakness:

Everything else. Honestly, your starting infield outside of Berkman is Kaz Matsui, Manzela, Feliz, and J.R. Towles. The Sacramento Rivercats will field something like Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Eric Patterson, Gregorio Petit and Josh Donaldson. I would take that crew RIGHT NOW over what Houston will run out in April. Carlos Lee still patrols the outfield, but after him and Berkman, nobody scares you in that lineup. Matt Lindstrom is slated to close. Enough said.

* Players to Watch Out For:

At the Big League level, Hunter Pence intrigues me. He seems like a steady 30 2B/25 HR type of hitter and a good outfield defender, but not necessarily a superstar you can build your team around. There is no help coming from Triple-A - the highest OPS of any hitter from Round Rock with at least 150 at-bats was .765. Jason Castro is on a lot of people’s radar as the catcher of the future, but he’s a lot farther from being Major League ready that he’s being given credit for. You have to like Korean relief pitcher Chia-Jen Lo, if for no other reason than he uses “Low” by Flo Rida as his entry music. Classic.

* Best Case Scenario:

Oswalt returns to form, Wandy repeats, Myers finds second life, the youngsters hold their own, Pence-Berkman-Lee generate enough offense to win some games and the back end of the bullpen doesn’t self-destruct every third day. The team floats around even for a while, but finally realizes they can’t compete. They ride off quietly into fourth place in the Central, knowing that it won’t be until 2011 that Oswalt and Berkman will hit contract years (2012 for Lee) and maybe the Astros can actually sling them to a contender to help rebuild themselves to be competitive for, say, 2015.

* Worst Case Scenario:

Everything goes as above. The Astros are competitive enough near the break that ownership gives away their best (only?) remaining farm system pieces for Adrian Beltre in an ill-advised shot at a division crown. Failure, demise. The organization is set back an additional 2-3 years and will not have a chance to be competitive again for another decade. Read More!

My Personal Fantasy Baseball Strike

That’s it. I’ve had it. Don’t bother sending me your invites to your Yahoo, Sportsline, or MLB.com leagues. This year I am officially on strike. No more fantasy baseball for me.

You might ask “Why John? Why abandon leagues you have been a part of for nearly a decade?” To which I offer you a very simple answer. I can’t stand ‘em anymore and I hate what they do to even the best baseball fans.

Fantasy baseball takes every day good-natured fans and turns them into uber-cynical, maniacal, stat-oriented bastards. Instead of adding to the game of baseball, they detract from it, making us analyze such idiotic things such as VORP. Seriously. What the fuck does VORP have anything to do with anything in real life? I no longer want to go through another baseball season cheering against my own team because I have Albert Pujols in the lineup. I no longer want to feel the responsibility of a Major League GM when my own job is hard enough (yes, I blog and I have a real job).

I want to go through a season, where I can experience baseball as a true fan, again. A season where I could enjoy the game for what it is, and the little bit of joy it brings to my life.

So this year, don’t bother inviting me to your draft party (unless you just want me to sit around and drink your beer). For my perennial team, The Postal Workers, will not be taking the field.

Now I know my fellow bloggers will disagree with me, so comment below and may the debate begin.

Read More!

That Loving Feeling

Well, it's mid-February, which means it's that certain special time of year again. Love is in the air, and no, I don't mean because of this.

It's that one time of the year when you are asked to take a day and think about the people in your life who mean the most to you. It is a time for reflection on the experiences you have had together- the good ones and the bad, the ecstasy and the heartbreak, the high drama and the love that can only come from one place.

So turn to your loved ones this week, look them in the eye so they know you are about to tell them something important. Smile, and say softly the words that you don't get to say enough, the ones you have been waiting to tell them throughout this deep, dark winter: "Pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training this week".

If they don't smile, well, they aren't worth the money you just wasted on flowers and chocolate.

The wait is over. Happy baseball season everybody! Read More!

The 2009 New York Yankees Are Without Merit Or Honor

The New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies to win the 2009 World Series.

Of course they did. They had the best team. But you must remember how they won: they bought the best team.

Here is what the 2009 New York Yankees hammered home to me: what you've earned will always be dearer that what you've bought.

The Yankees bought the best players available before the 2009 season began. This is a fact. They purchased the two best pitchers on the market, and the best infield slugger while already holding players that only the most monied Major League Baseball franchises could hope to pay.


One can't begrudge the Yankees for doing this, the rules of MLB allow it. One can't begrudge the players to go to the place that would pay them the most. Players would be fools not to sign with the team gathering the most juice. Simple.

Baseball is like the United States Of America if you care to look at either closely enough: run by the rich for the rich, who are attended to by those who've convinced themselves that they can earn their own way up the ladder. And as with any system in which the rich only get richer to the detriment of all, neither MLB nor the USA are sustainable in their current form.

I want to be wrong about this. I don't like what I see. There is so much joy in and around the game of baseball. Never forget the beauty of the game. There is so much possibility in the idea of the United States Of America. That must never be taken for granted.

When the final out of the 2009 World Series was recorded by 1B Mark Teixeira -- the best infield slugger available before this season -- the 2009 Yankees capered and cavorted happily about the field wearing the outfits of all the ghosts that had worn them before.

We remember The Babe and The Yankee Clipper. Mr. October, The Scooter, and The Iron Horse. Will 2009's mercenaries be fondly remembered? "Ol' Purple Lips?" "The Mountainous Merc With The Most Pinstripes?" Jerry Seinfeld once compared the mutable state of baseball rosters to "cheering for laundry." This is where MLB is now, and where it has been for a time, and where it looks to stay. The ideals of loyalty seeded in our youth are worn down like a millstone along the way. A reduction process.

In a post-win interview on the field, Teixeira said that it had all worked out because God had a plan for him. No, son; the decider here was of a distinctly non-celestial variety: NYY General Manager Brian Cashman. You merely earned your way into the Yankees' plans. The only question was when your contract came up. It was up in 2009, you were available, and you filled a need for the Yankees. That's how you won.

That's how the 2009 New York Yankees represent everything that is wrong with professional sport.

The players earned it? Yes, they did. As surely as you could earn a victory in poker by pre-selecting the best cards from the deck. Other franchises may have some good players, but when one team holds most of the best guys, that team will win more times than not. MLB's rules permit this. It is dishonorable.

There's no parity. It is not fair. Neither is life.

That is what I took away from the celebratory scene on the field last Wednesday. And that is what will be remembered: that the Yankees bought their win in the 2009 World Series. That it meant so much less.

Photos via AP. Chart via New York Magazine. Read More!

The Phillie Pharm

When I first looked at the eight post-season teams entering the 2009 Major League Baseball playoffs, I found it hard to root for any one of them. As an Oakland A's fan with professional ties to both the Cubs and Padres, I was pretty much out of luck. A quick look at my options left me as uninspired as I could ever remember entering October.

The Evil Empire was out, as were the Angels, (see: die-hard Oakland A's fan). The Red Sox had lost all of their pre-2004 appeal as an underdog, spending nearly as much money in payroll as the Yankees. Sure the Twins' frantic scamper to make the playoffs was entertaining, but anything short of a sweep in the first round at the hands of the Bronx Bombers seemed unlikely.

When I first looked at the National League, I didn't fare much better in finding a surrogate rooting interest. The Dodgers were out, given the Manny scandal coupled with my continued belief that Joe Torre is the most overrated manager in baseball and, well, Kirk Gibson. No, it hasn't been long enough. The Cardinals were somewhat interesting as a choice, but with my Cubs ties and a lingering feeling that the redbirds never really deserved 2006, St. Louis was out. The Rockies were intriguing, as the true underdog, with a shot at another Rocktober, but much like the A's post-Jason Giambi, it just never felt the same without Matt Holliday. That left only the Phillies, the defending champs who had already tasted glory in 2008.

I almost considered just scrapping the whole thing (gasp!) and waiting for next year. Nevertheless, I found myself rooting (albeit mildly) for Philadelphia. Maybe it was the presence of Jimmy Rollins, I pondered, the Alameda native who gave me a a hometown hero to root for. But I knew it was more than that. I just didn't realize why.

It wasn't until the day after Philadelphia's thrilling Game Four victory that it hit me. I was watching an interview with Ryan Howard from the night before. He was asked about Carlos Ruiz, the catcher who was almost an afterthought on this roster, who came scampering around all the way from first base on Rollins' game-winning, two-run double to propel the Phillies to a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. Howard laughed, saying "I haven't seen him run that fast since Clearwater."

My mind flashed back to a conversation I had a couple of weeks prior. I was in New Orleans, attending the Minor League Baseball Promotional Seminar when i ran into an executive at an open bar event during the first night of what turned out to be four steady days of drinking. We chatted for a minute about the upcoming NFL weekend (the Jets were in town to play the Saints... remember when that was the Super Bowl preview? Yeah, me neither) before the talk turned to baseball.

We discussed the farm systems of the teams for which we both worked, and compared similarities and differences. He told me about how his organization had made sure that they brought their young talent up together, level by level. They had essentially grown up together, some guys even being held back longer than the normal progression to form the real core of a team. He gushed when he talked about how great the group of guys had become, maturing into responsible, professional men of the game. As someone who downplays the importance of chemistry and readily dismisses ideas like "mystique" and "aura" in favor of hard, statistical evidence, I was nevertheless impressed by the organization's commitment to fostering a sense of community and raising their athletes as brothers.

After a nice chat, the executive and I shook hands and traded business cards. It turned out he was the Assistant General Manager of the Philadelphia Phillies Florida LLC. He worked for the Spring Training operation, as well as the team's Florida State League affiliate, the Clearwater Threshers.

He had seen Howard and Ruiz play together in A-Ball, along with Cole Hamels and Ryan Madson in 2003. It was hard to imagine a Yankees' minor league employee relating a story of any of their current roster playing together in the minors.

After all, in this day and age, there are no real hometown teams. Players are drafted from all over the country- and signed from all over the world- by each organization. Sure, the occasional attempt is made by a franchise to take talent closer to home, to create that sense of civic or regional pride (see: the Atlanta Braves and the first round of the MLB Draft). But really, the sense of community within a team is gone after college, and arguably past high school. The only way to build that same sense is to create it again from within.

The Phillies' commitment to that sense of team and community is something I can get behind. Guys like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Hamels and Happ are the core of that team. Sure they have had help from veterans and free agents, but everything starts with them. It reminds me of those 2000-2001 Oakland A's- guys like Tejada, Chavez, Giambi, Hernandez, Hudson, Mulder, Zito- who came up through the system together and built something special as a unit.

Of course, that team never won a championship. They were forced to go through the Yankees both years that the team was still in tact, losing in the deciding game both times.

Here's to hoping the Phillies can do better. Read More!

Come Back Thome

On August 31, Kenny Williams, the irreverant executive that he is, took a page straight out of a seventh-grade girl's spiral-bound handbook. Instead of studying the rosters of farm systems around the league and placing phonecalls to those that had young talent to trade him for his aging veterans, he made a list. On this list he put every player of his team whom he considered available on the final day to make a waiver deal. It was essentially a note, passed through the back row of class to all his buddies, like Ned Colletti, that read, for each of the players on the list:

DO YOU LIKE ME? CHECK ONE:

YES [ ]
NO [ ]
MAYBE [ ]

Classy.

Well, good old Ned checked a "Yes" for aging left-handed slugger Jim Thome, while Kenny Boy got the Rockies to bite on Jose Contreras. It was a pretty nifty little trick- dispensing with all that "homework" usually involved in trade talks- until we all saw how little the South Sox got in return.

After decimating their farm system by giving up their top four pitchers in a couple of disastrous trades with the A's and Padres over the last two years, the South Siders were in desperate need of some top level talent to restock the farm system. So in trading the man currently ranked 12th on the all-time home run list, you would expect at least a decent mid-level prospect in return, right? Needless to say, that didn't happen. Instead, they got a 25-year-old mired in A-Ball with a career OPS of less than .700. Yikes.

Meanwhile, Colorado continued to employ the "well-you-were-a-shitty-pitcher-in-Chicago-so-you-should-be-great-here" strategy for their season in acquiring Contreras, who leads the American League with 12 losses. Williams may have made off slightly better in his returns here, but again has shown us again how short-sighted he can be (even while off-loading veterans!) in whom he took in return.

Brandon Hynick is a 24-year-old who has spent all season at Triple-A Colorado Springs and tossed two seven-inning shutouts this year, including a perfect game against Portland on July 30th. Sounds pretty good right? We'll take him!

Of course, outside of those two starts he is just 8-9 with a 4.21 ERA and has struck out only 92 in 155 innings. Hmm... kind of reminds you of a poor man's version of someone else...

The point is, Williams threw in the towel on his season for the same reason he makes most of his decisions- to prove a point. Not to make his team better for the future, or even save money (the Sox sent cash to the Dodgers to offset Thome's remaining salary). Just because he wanted to. It will be fun to see Williams says about Jake Peavy once he realizes he won't pitch again until next year. Perhaps he'll start spreading nasty rumors about him, or ban him from sitting at the same lunch table.

Whatever he does, I know this much: I just can't wait to see what junior-high tactic he will employ next. Read More!

Thank You, Brett Favre

I wanted to take a minute out of the baseball season- where Scott Boras has tightrope-walked his deadline deals down to the very last moment, squeezing every last drop of financial life out the farm systems of the worst teams in the league- to reflect upon the greatest saga of modern sports history: the Brett Favre retirement/unretirement story.

The blitz of media coverage, driven almost exclusively by ESPN, has successfully distracted the majority of America from not just the major sports actually being played right now, but also from the real off-season stories of the NFL. The Worldwide Leader has exploited every rumor of this back-and-forth affair, and now, at last, Favre has officially signed with Minnesota, prolonging the discussion for another calander year. For this, I want to thank the man.

I want to thank Favre for helping divert attention from the wide receiver who shot himself in the leg when a gun slipped out of his sweatpants at a night club. I want to thank him for pulling the cameras from the quarterback who fought and killed animals, but thinks he deserves a second-chance at being a multi-millionaire. More than anything, I want to thank him for keeping the newspaper columns filled with something other than stories of the wide reciever who won't even do any jailtime after running over and killing a man while drunk and speeding.

Because while the rest of America tries to decide whether or not a purple #4 jersey looks out of place to them, I will be doing something else- anything but watching the NFL. The combination of heinous off-season offenses, coupled with the complete lack of apppropriate media response- which paled in comparison with the non-story that is, has been and will continue to be Brett Favre- has opened my eyes to the truth I have known all along, but have been unwilling to embrace.

I hate the NFL. And now, I am done with it.

I will not watch a single moment of the season this year, save the replays to which I will be subjected on SportsCenter. If I am invited to a Super Bowl party, I will be polite and sit through the game, but mostly for the commercials.

My boycott of America's most popular and worst sport was cemented as I watched Favre exit his private jet for the black Escalade to take him to the Vikings practice facility. The fact that there was a new helicopter flying over the tarmac to get that shot told me all I needed to know about this terrible spectacle, and how far out of control it has spiraled.

Yesterday a friend of mine who works in baseball explained his own dislike of the NFL in a way that I think many of us would like to, but don't have the courage to express.

"I just don't like the people in the game," he explained. "I hate to say it, and to make generalizations, but it's true."

It's true for me too. The biggest knock on baseball right now is that players used substances that were not banned at the time to try to make themselves into better baseball players. Football players have shot themselves, killed dogs, and committed vehicular manslaughter, all in this past off-season alone.

And the biggest story? Brett Favre.

So thank you Brett, for helping me make the best decision of my sports-loving life. The rest of you can join me during the work stoppage in 2011. Read More!

Wash and the Commodore

My actor friend Joseph Rende soon departs our shores to take to the stage in Virginia, and one night in the public house he told me, "Scott, it's about the work."

Joe's aphorism could just as easily, just as cleanly come off the lips of Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington, who waited year after year in Oakland outside the boss' office, hat in hand, waiting to hear if he would at last receive the big promotion he'd been yearning for. Would he make partner in the firm?

Athletics fans have seen lackey after clean-shaven lackey take the ship's controls under the watch of Commodore Billy Beane. While Beane's watch continued and his legend grew, his earnest infield instructor and third-base coach Washington appeared to possess the essentials: chain-smoker like Jimmy Leyland, uncanny tutor of the craft like Mike Scioscia, clubhouse favorite like Dusty Baker.

But no true architect, from Frank Lloyd Wright to Arthur Dyson to Henry Doelger, enjoys being told precisely how he will be designing his houses. Yet Beane capsized this assumption about our sport, as he has so many others; a man who would not read Beane's nautical tables, let alone faithfully follow them, would not be steering dear Billy's ship.

To understand Washington's world, reader, dig underneath the obtuse exterior of Joe Rende's statement, one I figure must make sense to the gaggles of actor-women that routinely surround him and his conspirator Patrick Alparone during smoke breaks on our city sidewalks. Ron still throws batting practice to his charges; for workouts he keeps his Rangers out of the oppressive Texan heat all but one afternoon of every homestand. Perhaps most relevant to any comparison to my actor friend, Washington professes his desire to see his team "play good baseball," as if winning will simply take care of itself in the end.

The four men Ron Washington beat out to assume his current position in Arlington have all since been given their chance to call the shots for crap teams: Trey Hillman, Royals; Manny Acta, Nationals; Don Wakamatsu, Mariners; and John Russell, Pirates. Yes, I know, they're peas in a pod - mediocre ballplayers who put in their time in the bus leagues (or on foreign soil) and have given decades of service to the game. (Indeed, name me a baseball man who transitioned from truly great player to truly great manager. Player-managers like Pete Rose and Frank Robinson are exempt from the debate. I'm one of the few baseball fans my age who bothers to accredit Joe Torre's playing career, and he did win an MVP award, but he was by no means great. Neither was Billy Martin.)

Wash, whom the Dallas press wrote off once already, has helped keep the Rangers in American League West contention as we near the break. He took over a crummy team and they are threatening to be, and stay, good. Joe Maddon already turned that trick in Tampa Bay, but he and Wash don't exactly see the game (or the world) the same way, right? How has Wash succeeded while other tried-and-true "baseball men" have failed? Is his good fortune due in part to Rangers general manager Jon Daniels, who gave Wash the thumbs-up when all seemed lost in the 2008 campaign's tender stages? Was it Wash's ability to downplay an alleged feud with the now-departed Mark Texieira?

Nowadays Beane's A's deploy young sailors like Trevor Cahill, waiting for the moment when he and others can be, as the lady in the Lucky supermarket adverts often said, "picked at the peak of freshness" by another club. Matt Holliday is dying to get back into a ballpark that makes him look less like a post-Braves Ryan Klesko. If the Rangers overtake Arte "Monopoly Man" Moreno and his Angels at the wire, leaving the A's in the dust once more, Commodore Beane will have to wonder if he finally wants a second opinion on his decisions, any of his decisions, down in that rathole of a Coliseum locker room.

In the meantime, Wash will puff on his Winstons, tell Josh Hamilton to "make it a good one, Strap" as Gene Hackman did to the praying player on his bench in "Hoosiers," and continue to tell the rest of his charges that it's about the work. Read More!

Bob Weston From Shellac Of North America Has No Opinion Of The Chicago White Sox

As previously mentioned, it's a surety that at least most of the gleefully-abstruse monstrously-menacing Chicago noise rock trio Shellac Of North America enjoy baseball.

Since bassist Bob Weston was kind enough to answer tenandfiveguys.com's initial question about the state of the Chicago Cubs on the first evening of Shellac's two night stint at the Great American Music Hall in San Francisco, during the second concert we undertook the logical step.

During the band's mid-set question-and-answer session, we asked Weston -- who on this night was sporting an excellent Err wristband -- his thoughts on Chicago's southside team:

Q: "What is your opinion of the White Sox?"

A: "Absolutely no opinion of the White Sox." [crowd hoots and applauds] "I like Ozzie Guillen though."

Yep, the "I-have-a-mouth-that-speaks-and-god-damn-it-will" Guillen certainly is enjoyable to watch as he manages the CWS club. At worst, with Oswaldo at the helm, ChiSox fans don't have to worry about being bored.

Speaking of which, has a single MLB city ever fielded as fiery a pair of managers as Chicago currently sports with Ozzie with the CWS and Sweet Lou Piniella at the CHC? We welcome your opinion in the Comments section.

As for Weston; regarding the White Sox, he has no opinion on them. Bob is a good sport, and we thank him for his lack of opinion. No opinion. Absolutely. Read More!