10&5 Official Team Preview: Cuba Libre – The Cincinnati Reds

When heralded young Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman defected from his homeland and became available on the US open market, the usual suspects began their bidding war. The Red Sox opened at around $15 million, but soon more than a dozen teams were rumored to be in the mix for the lefty’s services, even small market clubs like the Marlins. And then, like that, he was gone. To… the Reds? For $30 million!? That’s right, welcome to Ohio, Mr. Chapman. Don’t cross the river.

For a team that has long seemed on the brink, Chapman could be the piece to lead them back to the post-season promised land. His early returns out of Arizona have been, well, damn impressive. Any time you can add an arm with that kind of potential without even losing a draft pick (either by spending it on the player or by acquiring a Class A or B free agent), you have to try.

The best move the organization may have made in the last couple years though, was appointing former Cardinals front man Walt Jocketty as GM. If Chapman is a sign of things to come in the Jocketty years, there is reason to believe again in a city that hasn’t seen a playoff team since 1995.

* Biggest Strength

This is really hard to say. The Reds have an intriguing mix of seasoned vets and young talent, so I’ll risk the ire and abuse of my fellow writers and go with “balance”. Brandon Phillips is one of the best second basemen in the game and has proven players in Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera, Ramon Hernandez and the enigmatic, potential All-Star Joey Votto around him on the infield. The rotation is led by decent veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but loaded with young talent behind, waiting in the wings. Francisco Cordero has quietly become one of the most solid closers in the league, compiling 117 saves since ’07, third-best in the Majors.

*Biggest Weakness

The fates. First there is the curse of Dusty Baker. The man who was ridden out of both San Francisco and Chicago for his mismanagement of young arms will be put to the test this year with Chapman and the (eventual) return of Edinson Volquez, not to mention Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. If he continues to play older, less-talented players without results, may we see the end of the Baker era? A man can dream.

* Players to Watch Out For

A lot of people like to write off prospects as busts once they have a bad year. I’m willing to bet that Jay Bruce will make big strides to shed that title this season. It’s easy to forget how young he is - he will turn just 23 a couple days before the season begins. Same goes for Cueto (24). If the Reds can find a way to squeeze Yonder Alonso into left field, it may make up for the power void that opened up when Adam Dunn was shipped out of town. Chris Dickerson is also a freakish athlete still trying to convert that potential into baseball productivity. He is a poor man’s five-tool player who gives the team versatility across the outfield.

* Best Case Scenario

The range of potential outcomes for the Reds’ season may be as wide as for any team in the league. The NL Central appears to be the Cardinals’ division to lose, but they are not without their question marks. Could Cincinnati step in and steal the division? It would require literally everything to fall into place, but I think it’s possible. Cueto, Bruce, Bailey and Chapman all have breakout years. Harang and Arroyo return to being solid, inning-eating starters. EVERYBODY STAYS HEALTHY. Even if the Cardinals don’t falter, a heavy dose of games against weak divisional competition could land the Reds a Wild Card birth.

* Worst Case Scenario

Dusty runs Chapman out until his labrum looks like Brad Radke’s. Volquez never returns. Joey Votto’s inner-ear imbalance resurfaces. Bruce is a bust, and Arroyo sets the Major League record for home runs allowed in a season. The phrase “squandered potential” is heard for the tenth straight season on the streets of Cincinnati, and it isn’t even football season yet. One of the Astros/Pirates/Brewers save the Reds the shame of the only sixth place finish possible in the sport.