The Tampa Bay Hannibal Hamlins have always assumed a tertiary stead in the AL East horse race. In the morning after the glory of their storied '08 World Series run, the Rays were encumbered with the lofty task of ending decades of Yankees/Red Sox hegemony. Alas and fearful alack, 2009 would usher in a season of diminishing returns. A rather unprepossessing regular season record of 84-78 would cause less discerning folk to effect a hackneyed narrative of inevitable regression and a return to the hallowed status quo. At TenAndFiveGuys however, we understand the importance of burning a few bridges in order to make a boat. Let's take a more exacting look at last year's Rays team as well as the club's prospects heading into the 2010 season.
According to BaseballProspectus's adjusted standings, the Rays were a true talent 92-win team, placing them in front of the Red Sox for last year's Wild Card spot. The Rays were among the major league leaders in wOBA (Weighted On Base Average), ranking fourth overall at a .366 clip. In addition, the club boasted the second highest UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in the league, averaging 10.6 runs above average. Objective measurements place the team's pitching smack in the middle of the American League; a ranking that places them ahead of two of last year's playoff teams -- the Angels and Twins. On a side note, does anyone else find it odd that the only place to find sortable, if slapdash, bullpen stats is on MLB.COM? True story.
When presented with the full picture, it is reasonable to assert that the promulgators of conventional thinking are wrong yet again. That thinking being that the Rays should always be considered longshots to make the playoffs in any given year because of the rigorous division in which they play. All things being equal (fat chance), the 2009 Rays were deserving of a playoff spot and were not that far removed from the Cinderella team of yesteryear. This year the Rays will be looking to shake the unseemly "best third-place team in baseball" epithet, and appear to be in a good position to do so.
Jettisoning Special K (who was especially K-less!) at the end of last year was, in all likelihood, a good move. Seeing a precipitous decline in the velocity of his fastball, SP Scott Kazmir relied more heavily on his unremarkable slider. Coupled with his perennial trips to the DL each year, it was perhaps best to leave him to languish in the land of attrition. Have fun with that. Oh yeah, they also ousted Andy Sun-don't-shine. Huzzah!
The team's projected rotation for the 2010 season is as follows: James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. While there may be not be a bona fide ace in that bunch, you do have a lot of solid No. 2's and and a few 3's from top to bottom. Promising prospect and tentative No. 5 starter Davis was impressive in his brief debut last year, posting a 2.90 FIP and K/9 rate of 8.92 in just 36 innings of work. It is highly possible that the team's putative ace, one Mr. James Shields, could well have lowest K rate of any of the starting five this year. The much-beloved and ballyhooed David Price should continue to grow this year, though it is hard to see him posting an FIP under 4 by season's end, as he continues to struggle with his command, his woeful slider, and his underwhelming K/9 totals.
Arguably the most important thing the Rays did this off-season was to clean out the Augean stables in their overworked, aging bullpen. The Front Office scored a coup in the acquiring of the Arbitrarian Contrarian Rafael Soriano, who boasted a phenomenal 12.13 K rate and 2.54 FIP last year with the Braves. Soriano will add much needed ballast to the Rays' pen as well as a good dose of Rolaids™ in the 9th inning.
Looking much like the team that was 4th overall in OPS and 7th in runs scored, the Rays hope to build on breakout seasons from middle infielders Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett. The awesome augurs at PECOTA have proffered respective lines of 270/.378/.483 and .282/.351/.407 for this coming season. Not too shabby, even with an understandable expectation of regression for Mr. Bartlett. Throw a healthy B.J. Upton and rapacious Carl Crawford into the mix and it's hard to find a reason why the Rays won't have the highest Speed Score in the Majors again this year.
This brings us to the real grist for the mill, sluggers Evan Longoria (he's freaking 24, an age where most of us are fiddling around with Microsoft Excel) and Carlos Pena. It might be brazen to suggest that, given an improbable total of 1300 Plate Appearances between them, you could well see an 80 home run tandem this year, giving the Rays an invidious cavalcade of 1-6 hitters. Now if only Pat "The Bat" Burrell would stop paying homage to his 2003 season, as he did last year, with a .682 OPS and nary a tater against left-handing pitching, the Rays would have formidable power, speed, and patience throughout the lineup. Suffice it to say that this is not your crusty but benign sports analyst's best third-place team in baseball. Playoffs? Peut-être. Veremos.
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Good assessment, Hutch. I had the feeling that the Rays were the victims of some bad luck last year, but hadn't taken a look at the numbers. Here's to hoping that the Boston/New York tandem doesn't dominate as usual in 2010.
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