10&5 Official Team Preview: Troubled Times - The Houston Astros

In the ebb and flow of baseball supremacy, bad teams are awarded higher draft rights in efforts to help offset their misfortunes and give the league competitive balance. Some teams use those picks well, manage their farm system carefully and build towards a prosperous future, understanding that it may take a few years of finishing sub .500 before they can even sniff a shot at glory. The Rays, Marlins, A’s and Twins have all been able to accomplish this over the last decade in spite of limited payrolls.

And then you have the Astros, the old Colt .45s, who stick to their guns long after it’s become apparent that they no longer fire. A decade of uninspired drafts, embarrassing personnel decisions and general asshattery from the front office has left them a shell of a baseball organization that is staring at only one possible future: the Houston Astros are going to be bad for a long time.

Gone from last year’s squad that finished 74-88 is Miguel Tejada, leaving a gaping hole at shortstop. The projected Opening Day starter there right now is Tommy Manzela, whose five career Major League at-bats evidently don’t scare Astros' General Manager Ed Wade (or chairman/CEO Drayton McLane). Of course, Wade is the man who traded Brad Lidge, then swapped the entire farm system for the now-departed Tejada and Jose Valverde.

Meanwhile, Pedro Feliz takes over at third base. Yikes.

With Lance Berkman already hurt in Spring Training, it may be time to dig in your heels for a long season on the gulf. Hey, we’ve gotta start these previews somewhere - it might as well be at the bottom.

* Biggest Strength:

Starting pitching. Seriously. Well, maybe. Roy Oswalt was a top-five starter in the National League until last year. His previous worsts: 14 wins, 3.54 ERA. Last year, 8 wins, 4.12 ERA. His WHIP was still pretty good at 1.24, but he matched the lowest GO/AO ratio of his career at 1.19, a troubling sign. Wandy Rodriguez is coming off a career year that saw him shatter his highs in wins and strikeouts and finally return to a groundball pitcher after two years in Zito-land. Brett Myers strengthens the middle of the rotation and gives the team another veteran, albeit a mediocre one. The Brandon Backe experiment appears to have finally reached an end, allowing Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino to show if there is any promise (any at all will do, really) coming out of the farm system.

* Biggest Weakness:

Everything else. Honestly, your starting infield outside of Berkman is Kaz Matsui, Manzela, Feliz, and J.R. Towles. The Sacramento Rivercats will field something like Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Eric Patterson, Gregorio Petit and Josh Donaldson. I would take that crew RIGHT NOW over what Houston will run out in April. Carlos Lee still patrols the outfield, but after him and Berkman, nobody scares you in that lineup. Matt Lindstrom is slated to close. Enough said.

* Players to Watch Out For:

At the Big League level, Hunter Pence intrigues me. He seems like a steady 30 2B/25 HR type of hitter and a good outfield defender, but not necessarily a superstar you can build your team around. There is no help coming from Triple-A - the highest OPS of any hitter from Round Rock with at least 150 at-bats was .765. Jason Castro is on a lot of people’s radar as the catcher of the future, but he’s a lot farther from being Major League ready that he’s being given credit for. You have to like Korean relief pitcher Chia-Jen Lo, if for no other reason than he uses “Low” by Flo Rida as his entry music. Classic.

* Best Case Scenario:

Oswalt returns to form, Wandy repeats, Myers finds second life, the youngsters hold their own, Pence-Berkman-Lee generate enough offense to win some games and the back end of the bullpen doesn’t self-destruct every third day. The team floats around even for a while, but finally realizes they can’t compete. They ride off quietly into fourth place in the Central, knowing that it won’t be until 2011 that Oswalt and Berkman will hit contract years (2012 for Lee) and maybe the Astros can actually sling them to a contender to help rebuild themselves to be competitive for, say, 2015.

* Worst Case Scenario:

Everything goes as above. The Astros are competitive enough near the break that ownership gives away their best (only?) remaining farm system pieces for Adrian Beltre in an ill-advised shot at a division crown. Failure, demise. The organization is set back an additional 2-3 years and will not have a chance to be competitive again for another decade.