10&5 Official Team Preview: Cardinal Power

They must be eating some strange cheese steaks in Philly for them to think for a second that they could ever trade Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols. Other than youth, there is no upside for the Cardinals to make the deal. The Machine had an average almost 50 points higher, an on-base percentage over 80 points higher, and a slugging percentage nearly 100 points higher. Need I say more? Albert Pujols is the class of the National League, as the reigning, defending, unanimous MVP. And guess what, kids… he is showing no signs of stopping.

On top of that, St. Louis fans don’t just get a chance to see the world’s best active hitter; they also get to see two guys who finished 2 and 3 in the Cy Young voting. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright had spectacular seasons. Both of whom were well deserving of taking the title from our favorite pot-smoking Washington native.

The Cardinals have an embarrassment of riches. Add an All-Star catcher (Yadier Molina) and left fielder (Matt Holliday) into this mix, and you’ve got a team that will not only win the NL Central, but potentially a pennant and some trophy with 30 flags on it as well.

* Biggest Strength

The Cardinals were fourth in the league in ERA, were second-to-last in giving up homeruns, and tied for third in the league in total bases allowed. This pitching staff is stingy. If you want to score runs on them, I’d recommend you go up to the plate with a shovel instead of a baseball bat.

* Biggest Weakness

When it comes to hitting, despite their prodigious producers, they pretty much are second tier. Albeit top of the second tier, but second tier none the less. They were seventh in the league in runs scored, sixth in SLG and tenth in OBP last year. This happens when the rest of the supporting cast doesn’t carry the load. The fate of the Cardinals will not rely on how the big sluggers do, but how the rest of the lineup serves to complement the team’s All-Stars.

* Player to Watch Out For

In 2007, P Brad Penny started the All-Star game for the National League. A couple bad years in Boston and a resurgent effort with the Giants later, Penny has a shot to reclaim his former form. The Cardinals are betting on that chance, having pretty much replaced P Joel Piniero’s spot in the rotation with Penny. A bad year from Penny would leave the Cardinals in a tough situation.

* Best Case Scenario

The supporting cast to the MVPs, All-Stars and Cy Young candidates of this team step it up and makes this a year to remember for the Cardinals. There aren’t a lot of obstacles for this team to claim a world championship.

* Worst Case Scenario

Considering that they are in the same division as the struggling Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Astros, and Pirates… if the Cardinals were to have a boat load of injuries, I still see them topping the NL Central. Not a bad place to be if that’s your worst case scenario. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Journey To The End Of The East Bay - The Oakland A's

The cupboard is bare. The Oakland A's baseball club headed into the 2010 season has already had all salable parts removed and sold. What's left is a scrappy squad of not-exactly-the-best-at-their-trade millionaires that the other MLB franchises didn't think could help their respective teams.

No one worth lifting is left. The Athletics' roster has been picked clean by Those-That-Have in recent years. Rookie Of The Year-winning CP Andrew Bailey, if he continues to convert saves, could be a bullpen cog somewhere else. (Was that a depressing sentence to read? It was a depressing sentence to write.)

Now that most MLB teams are using the savvy "Moneyball" player-selecting techniques pioneered by OAK's celebrated GM/part-owner Billy Beane but backing their analysis up with spending power well past what Oakland has, the A's aren't able to compete with everyone else working the same angles that once only they saw.

"What you gonna do when everybody goes on without you?" -- Rancid, "Journey To The End Of The East Bay"

So, what now? Can Beane adapt? Will owner & managing partner Lew Wolff continue trying to move the team to a new location? In the midst of all this falling rubble, the Athletics seem evermore to belong in Oakland: the team, such as they are on the field, represent the dogged upstartness of the East Bay. The A's are underdogs and are trying to make their own way as best they can despite the odds stacked against them. "They just need to stay where they are!" said an exasperated Flora Rogers, official 10&5 grandmother and A's correspondent. Will they? Can they? What does the future hold for this baseball club?

Photo of GM Billy Beane and SP Ben Sheets via hawkfantasysports.wordpress.com.

* Biggest Strength:

Pitching (on paper.) Both the number-one and number-two pitchers for Oakland are former All-Star starters with great stuff. On paper. Both Ben Sheets (no pitches thrown in 2009 with a torn elbow flexor tendon) and Justin Duchscerer (pronounced "DUKE-shur;" no pitches thrown in 2009 with back, shoulder and depression issues) are followed by horrific histories of injury. This pair have been seeing the inside of doctors' offices more than the tops of pitching mounds in recent years. Not everyone can have a Frank Gore story of excelling post-injury. These two gents could be great once more, but what is unknowable is how much milage is left in each of their arms. Classify their Beane-blessed signings and installations as high-risk, high-reward.

* Biggest Weakness:

Bat-on-ball offense. As said, the cupboard is bare.

"No one is worried about the A's batting order," said 10&5 A's correspondent and Oakland über-fan Tony Bernacchi. "There's a serious power void besides [DH Jack] Cust. [New 3B] Kevin Kouzmanoff can't protect Cust." Indeed. He couldn't protect the Padres' single excellent slugger 1B Adrian Gonzalez in San Diego either. It's a show-me year for Kouz.

The one and two hitters are speedsters; the wily LF Rajai Davis as leadoff and the fragile-shouldered CF Coco Crisp behind him. The A's have no bats that an opposing team feel they have to account especially for, short of the free-swinging Cust.

* Players to Watch Out For:

SP Ben Sheets. The former four-time All-Star 98/MPH fireballer has signed on the dotted line for a $10M one-year contract. He didn't throw a pitch in 2009, yet he is slated to be Oakland's Opening Day starter.

But mayday, witness this: today in a spring game, Sheets allowed 10 runs, nine of them earned, without getting a single out. Against the Reds. For a pitcher, even in a practice game, this result of maximum failure is reason for maximum consternation.

* Best Case Scenario:

Despite the whirl of negatives, 10&5 A's correspondent DJ Burrito is convinced that if things matriculate correctly, Oakland can make the post-season.

"They could sneak in as a wild card. Nothing special," said the DJ, "I just think that if they are able to win 10 more games this year, they will be competitive in the AL West. If not, they will be third."

Bernacchi agreed that the A's could surprise, but "They're not a playoff team," he said. "They've got a shot only because of the AL West."

Getting a shot of any sort is contingent on the healthiness of gentlemen who have spent a lot of time recovering from being hurt.

* Worst Case Scenario:

Worst case? The A's are already there. This is it. There is no worse situation in baseball than the one that the A's are in. No stars, no budget, arguably the worst stadium in baseball (despite its unvarnished charm), and an inept ownership that tried to move the team but couldn't. There is no farther to fall professionally excepting of the ultimate fear of obliviating contraction. Can the A's franchise push off of this figurative bottom-of-the-pool? Because they're there. This is the bottom. This is the end.

Photo of the Oakland Coliseum via baseballpilgrimages.com. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Cuba Libre – The Cincinnati Reds

When heralded young Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman defected from his homeland and became available on the US open market, the usual suspects began their bidding war. The Red Sox opened at around $15 million, but soon more than a dozen teams were rumored to be in the mix for the lefty’s services, even small market clubs like the Marlins. And then, like that, he was gone. To… the Reds? For $30 million!? That’s right, welcome to Ohio, Mr. Chapman. Don’t cross the river.

For a team that has long seemed on the brink, Chapman could be the piece to lead them back to the post-season promised land. His early returns out of Arizona have been, well, damn impressive. Any time you can add an arm with that kind of potential without even losing a draft pick (either by spending it on the player or by acquiring a Class A or B free agent), you have to try.

The best move the organization may have made in the last couple years though, was appointing former Cardinals front man Walt Jocketty as GM. If Chapman is a sign of things to come in the Jocketty years, there is reason to believe again in a city that hasn’t seen a playoff team since 1995.

* Biggest Strength

This is really hard to say. The Reds have an intriguing mix of seasoned vets and young talent, so I’ll risk the ire and abuse of my fellow writers and go with “balance”. Brandon Phillips is one of the best second basemen in the game and has proven players in Scott Rolen, Orlando Cabrera, Ramon Hernandez and the enigmatic, potential All-Star Joey Votto around him on the infield. The rotation is led by decent veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, but loaded with young talent behind, waiting in the wings. Francisco Cordero has quietly become one of the most solid closers in the league, compiling 117 saves since ’07, third-best in the Majors.

*Biggest Weakness

The fates. First there is the curse of Dusty Baker. The man who was ridden out of both San Francisco and Chicago for his mismanagement of young arms will be put to the test this year with Chapman and the (eventual) return of Edinson Volquez, not to mention Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. If he continues to play older, less-talented players without results, may we see the end of the Baker era? A man can dream.

* Players to Watch Out For

A lot of people like to write off prospects as busts once they have a bad year. I’m willing to bet that Jay Bruce will make big strides to shed that title this season. It’s easy to forget how young he is - he will turn just 23 a couple days before the season begins. Same goes for Cueto (24). If the Reds can find a way to squeeze Yonder Alonso into left field, it may make up for the power void that opened up when Adam Dunn was shipped out of town. Chris Dickerson is also a freakish athlete still trying to convert that potential into baseball productivity. He is a poor man’s five-tool player who gives the team versatility across the outfield.

* Best Case Scenario

The range of potential outcomes for the Reds’ season may be as wide as for any team in the league. The NL Central appears to be the Cardinals’ division to lose, but they are not without their question marks. Could Cincinnati step in and steal the division? It would require literally everything to fall into place, but I think it’s possible. Cueto, Bruce, Bailey and Chapman all have breakout years. Harang and Arroyo return to being solid, inning-eating starters. EVERYBODY STAYS HEALTHY. Even if the Cardinals don’t falter, a heavy dose of games against weak divisional competition could land the Reds a Wild Card birth.

* Worst Case Scenario

Dusty runs Chapman out until his labrum looks like Brad Radke’s. Volquez never returns. Joey Votto’s inner-ear imbalance resurfaces. Bruce is a bust, and Arroyo sets the Major League record for home runs allowed in a season. The phrase “squandered potential” is heard for the tenth straight season on the streets of Cincinnati, and it isn’t even football season yet. One of the Astros/Pirates/Brewers save the Reds the shame of the only sixth place finish possible in the sport. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: This Is (Not) The Year - The Chicago Cubs

It has been a long time coming and it finally happened for the Northsiders!

No, not winning it all, obviously. But this off-season the Cubs finally managed to do two things that seemed impossible: they shipped the clubhouse party-pooper Milton Bradley out of town and, more importantly, Sam Zell and Tribune Co. officially sold the organization.

Admittedly, getting Carlos Silva in exchange for Bradley can hardly be called a boon for the Cubs. But two unquestionable benefits make the albatross (either Silva himself or his contract, your choice) the Cubs took on worthwhile. Somehow they conned Seattle Mariners' GM Jack Zduriencik into throwing a chunk of money their way. Assuming Silva is as bad as advertised, and there is no reason to expect otherwise, the Cubs saved $6 million by dealing Bradley, even if they cut Silva. Removing the clubhouse pariah is the second positive from the deal. All off-season Cubs players were noticeably quiet in their support for his side of the story. While not being so classless as to celebrate his departure, the players' relief is almost tangible. Don't under-estimate the importance of team chemistry when the team plays 81 games in probably the smallest clubhouse in either league.

* Biggest Strength

With an opening day payroll expected to be around $135 million, it seems peculiar that no area of strength immediately comes to mind. Over the past few years, the starting rotation could easily qualify. Two years ago, the offense was extremely potent. But this year? The rotation may still win that title but it is obviously weaker than last year considering Ted Lilly is starting the season on the DL and the crapshoot that is the 5th starter competition. Rich Harden's departure was a big blow but a financial necessity. Derek Lee (average OPS of .930 for the Cubs, excluding the 2006 injury-plagued season) and Aramis Ramirez (OPS of at least .898 every year since first full year with Cubs in 2004) will continue to anchor the offense.

* Biggest Weakness

With an opening day payroll expected to be around $135 million, it seems peculiar that so many areas of weakness immediately come to mind. The bullpen is projected to be loaded with rookies and inexperienced pitchers. 2B is a black hole. Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano need to prove they can still hit.

* Players To Watch Out For

The name on everybody's list is SS Starlin Castro. The 19 year old, rated as the Cubs' top prospect, is being hailed by the brass as the player of the future. The problem with that is the Cubs have previously ordained Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, and Mark Prior as the next great player. As of March 11, Castro was batting .571 in spring training and is a wiz in the field. But the Cubs are determined to go slowly with him. They refuse to even experiment with Ryan Theriot at 2B. The double-play combo of Castro-Theriot could be a huge offensive and defensive upgrade and both positions if Castro is able to make the adjustment to the major leagues. I expect to see Castro on the big league club before September, but when and for how long is a mystery.

* Best Case Scenario

Everybody stays healthy, unlike last year. Lou Piniella was able to play his opening day lineup only 2-3 times all season. After losing 40 lbs this off-season Soto rediscovers his rookie success. Soriano learns that he can't hit the low and away slider. The Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot platoon at 2B is not an automatic out. Carlos Marmol does not lose the strike zone for weeks on end. One of the young relievers manifests his inner Andrew Bailey. If all this happens, a wild card birth for October baseball is not out of the question.

* Worst Case Scenario

Since joining the 40-40 club in 2006, Soriano's OPS has steadily dropped from .911 to .726. That slide continues. But the Cubs being the Cubs refuse to bench him. Soto proves to be a one hit wonder. Carlos Zambrano shows that his nine win season from a year ago was no fluke but that his no-no against the Astros in 2008 was. Because the expectations for this year are not as high as in years past, a .500 record would not be the end of the world. The real danger lies in the off-season. Lee's contract is expiring and the Cubs have expressed no interest in an extension. With no replacement available, the right side of the infield could be extremely unproductive. Making matters worse, Ramirez has an opt-out clause at the end of the year which he may be tempted to exercise.
Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: The 2010 Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Hannibal Hamlins have always assumed a tertiary stead in the AL East horse race. In the morning after the glory of their storied '08 World Series run, the Rays were encumbered with the lofty task of ending decades of Yankees/Red Sox hegemony. Alas and fearful alack, 2009 would usher in a season of diminishing returns. A rather unprepossessing regular season record of 84-78 would cause less discerning folk to effect a hackneyed narrative of inevitable regression and a return to the hallowed status quo. At TenAndFiveGuys however, we understand the importance of burning a few bridges in order to make a boat. Let's take a more exacting look at last year's Rays team as well as the club's prospects heading into the 2010 season.

According to BaseballProspectus's adjusted standings, the Rays were a true talent 92-win team, placing them in front of the Red Sox for last year's Wild Card spot. The Rays were among the major league leaders in wOBA (Weighted On Base Average), ranking fourth overall at a .366 clip. In addition, the club boasted the second highest UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in the league, averaging 10.6 runs above average. Objective measurements place the team's pitching smack in the middle of the American League; a ranking that places them ahead of two of last year's playoff teams -- the Angels and Twins. On a side note, does anyone else find it odd that the only place to find sortable, if slapdash, bullpen stats is on MLB.COM? True story.

When presented with the full picture, it is reasonable to assert that the promulgators of conventional thinking are wrong yet again. That thinking being that the Rays should always be considered longshots to make the playoffs in any given year because of the rigorous division in which they play. All things being equal (fat chance), the 2009 Rays were deserving of a playoff spot and were not that far removed from the Cinderella team of yesteryear. This year the Rays will be looking to shake the unseemly "best third-place team in baseball" epithet, and appear to be in a good position to do so.

Jettisoning Special K (who was especially K-less!) at the end of last year was, in all likelihood, a good move. Seeing a precipitous decline in the velocity of his fastball, SP Scott Kazmir relied more heavily on his unremarkable slider. Coupled with his perennial trips to the DL each year, it was perhaps best to leave him to languish in the land of attrition. Have fun with that. Oh yeah, they also ousted Andy Sun-don't-shine. Huzzah!

The team's projected rotation for the 2010 season is as follows: James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis. While there may be not be a bona fide ace in that bunch, you do have a lot of solid No. 2's and and a few 3's from top to bottom. Promising prospect and tentative No. 5 starter Davis was impressive in his brief debut last year, posting a 2.90 FIP and K/9 rate of 8.92 in just 36 innings of work. It is highly possible that the team's putative ace, one Mr. James Shields, could well have lowest K rate of any of the starting five this year. The much-beloved and ballyhooed David Price should continue to grow this year, though it is hard to see him posting an FIP under 4 by season's end, as he continues to struggle with his command, his woeful slider, and his underwhelming K/9 totals.



Arguably the most important thing the Rays did this off-season was to clean out the Augean stables in their overworked, aging bullpen. The Front Office scored a coup in the acquiring of the Arbitrarian Contrarian Rafael Soriano, who boasted a phenomenal 12.13 K rate and 2.54 FIP last year with the Braves. Soriano will add much needed ballast to the Rays' pen as well as a good dose of Rolaids™ in the 9th inning.

Looking much like the team that was 4th overall in OPS and 7th in runs scored, the Rays hope to build on breakout seasons from middle infielders Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett. The awesome augurs at PECOTA have proffered respective lines of 270/.378/.483 and .282/.351/.407 for this coming season. Not too shabby, even with an understandable expectation of regression for Mr. Bartlett. Throw a healthy B.J. Upton and rapacious Carl Crawford into the mix and it's hard to find a reason why the Rays won't have the highest Speed Score in the Majors again this year.

This brings us to the real grist for the mill, sluggers Evan Longoria (he's freaking 24, an age where most of us are fiddling around with Microsoft Excel) and Carlos Pena. It might be brazen to suggest that, given an improbable total of 1300 Plate Appearances between them, you could well see an 80 home run tandem this year, giving the Rays an invidious cavalcade of 1-6 hitters. Now if only Pat "The Bat" Burrell would stop paying homage to his 2003 season, as he did last year, with a .682 OPS and nary a tater against left-handing pitching, the Rays would have formidable power, speed, and patience throughout the lineup. Suffice it to say that this is not your crusty but benign sports analyst's best third-place team in baseball. Playoffs? Peut-être. Veremos. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Outdoor Baseball In Minnesota

The Twins, arguably, played the best baseball game of the entire 2009 year on their 163rd regular season game. It was the last glorious night in Metrodome Twins' history, as the Yankees completed the Division Series sweep against them in the final game in Metrodome history. Given that there hasn’t been a whole lot of movement with the Twins this offseason, except for the signings of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome, one of the biggest questions will be, how will the Twins play in Target Field?

Let’s face it, given the rash of new ballpark openings and every sports architecture firm doing their best at play “balancing”, we simply don’t know how a ballpark will favor hitters or pitchers. The Mets had no clue how much their new ballpark played a role in David Wright’s power drought. The Yankees didn’t know they had the next band box. Bottom line is Target Field itself has the potential to make or break Minnesota. And let’s not yet talk about any home field advantage of playing outdoors in the cold of Minnesota for a potential playoff berth.

*Biggest Strength:

Their offense ranked 4th in on-base percentage, 3rd in batting average, and 4th in runs scored last year in the American League. Justin Morneau, Mike Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel will bring a fair amount of production, especially when anchored by reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer. Orlando Hudson will surely provide an offensive boost and a perennially hungry Jim Thome will add his spark. Put it this way, up and down the Twins lineup are hitters that give pitchers nightmares. Expect a lot of runs, unless the ballpark says otherwise.

*Biggest Weakness:

It’s easy to blame the pitching staff… but with the numbers they put up last year and the lack of movement in signing quality pitchers, you have to blame the pitching staff again. They surrendered 4.50 team ERA and gave up more homeruns than everyone except the Orioles in the American League. Carl Pavano cannot be their long term answer and the Twins are desperate to get Francisco Liriano back to his 2006 form. Luckily the Twins have a wonderfully-crafted offense to keep them in the game when their starting pitchers decide to take an early rest.

*Players to Watch Out For:

Jason Kubel’s Average OPS, Slugging, Homers, and RBIs have increased year over year for the past three years. He’s a relative unknown buried in a star powered offense, but another increase in production means he’s on Mauer’s level of offensive fortitude. If Kubel keeps working his magic, the Twins can be scary.

*Best Case Scenario:

Liriano finds his 2006 form, Carl Pavano finds his 2004 form, and Joe Nathan has his annual spectacular season (hoping his current pitching arm scare is just a scare). This combined with their hitting means they are a force in the American League. Should they hit a groove early on in the season and not need a 163rd game to get into the playoffs. Expect them to go deep. Way deep.

*Worst Case Scenario:

Target Field becomes Coors Field central. The Twins' ERA balloons to over 5.00 for the season. As good as their hitting is, the inconsistency of the pitching staff combined with the friendly confines of Target Field makes it impossible for the team to remain competitive in a division where the Tigers (now with a SOBER Miguel Cabrera) are ever looming. Read More!

In Defense Of Fantasy Baseball

First off, thanks to AJ for starting with the 2010 team previews, and to JP for getting this season rolling; the latter's post was provocative enough that I didn't feel satisfied with the comments section rejoinder that he requested, so here's my personal defense of fantasy baseball.

Baseball (and pretty much every audience-centric sport) retains its popularity due partly to the fact that it's fun to talk about it with other fans. The examples are obvious and subject to numerous writerly paeans: going to the stadium with your dad, watching the game at your friend's house or at your favorite bar with the colorful old locals who watched Willie Mays play, &c.

I believe the coolest part of fantasy baseball is how it widens the field of discourse. Prior the 2004 inauguration of my team, The Flying Stud Farm, I was guilty of the geographical myopia that infects most fans. There's no way I could have named for you the starting rotation on any American League team, but I'm pretty sure I knew what every starter on the Giants' favorite ice cream was at some point.

But with my involvement in fantasy baseball, suddenly the abilities of marginal players on other teams was of interest. Match-ups in games between the Royals and Rangers became interesting. In order to gain a competitive advantage in scouting new talent, I familiarized myself with each team's farm system and discovered the pleasures of following multiple levels of minor league baseball. I found out that explaining performance as the result of thinly disguised magic intangibles is way less fun than investigating the actual causes.

And while I will concede that this level of engagement does change one's rooting interests in many cases, I posit that it's usually from general apathy to active engagement. Someone who roots for his or her fantasy superstars over a hometown team is a self-centered douche, whose obnoxious behavior is due to vanity way more than any sort of structural flaw inherent in imaginary leagues. If you approach fantasy baseball like a real, passionate fan, it can make you a smarter fan. Read More!

10&5 Official Team Preview: Troubled Times - The Houston Astros

In the ebb and flow of baseball supremacy, bad teams are awarded higher draft rights in efforts to help offset their misfortunes and give the league competitive balance. Some teams use those picks well, manage their farm system carefully and build towards a prosperous future, understanding that it may take a few years of finishing sub .500 before they can even sniff a shot at glory. The Rays, Marlins, A’s and Twins have all been able to accomplish this over the last decade in spite of limited payrolls.

And then you have the Astros, the old Colt .45s, who stick to their guns long after it’s become apparent that they no longer fire. A decade of uninspired drafts, embarrassing personnel decisions and general asshattery from the front office has left them a shell of a baseball organization that is staring at only one possible future: the Houston Astros are going to be bad for a long time.

Gone from last year’s squad that finished 74-88 is Miguel Tejada, leaving a gaping hole at shortstop. The projected Opening Day starter there right now is Tommy Manzela, whose five career Major League at-bats evidently don’t scare Astros' General Manager Ed Wade (or chairman/CEO Drayton McLane). Of course, Wade is the man who traded Brad Lidge, then swapped the entire farm system for the now-departed Tejada and Jose Valverde.

Meanwhile, Pedro Feliz takes over at third base. Yikes.

With Lance Berkman already hurt in Spring Training, it may be time to dig in your heels for a long season on the gulf. Hey, we’ve gotta start these previews somewhere - it might as well be at the bottom.

* Biggest Strength:

Starting pitching. Seriously. Well, maybe. Roy Oswalt was a top-five starter in the National League until last year. His previous worsts: 14 wins, 3.54 ERA. Last year, 8 wins, 4.12 ERA. His WHIP was still pretty good at 1.24, but he matched the lowest GO/AO ratio of his career at 1.19, a troubling sign. Wandy Rodriguez is coming off a career year that saw him shatter his highs in wins and strikeouts and finally return to a groundball pitcher after two years in Zito-land. Brett Myers strengthens the middle of the rotation and gives the team another veteran, albeit a mediocre one. The Brandon Backe experiment appears to have finally reached an end, allowing Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino to show if there is any promise (any at all will do, really) coming out of the farm system.

* Biggest Weakness:

Everything else. Honestly, your starting infield outside of Berkman is Kaz Matsui, Manzela, Feliz, and J.R. Towles. The Sacramento Rivercats will field something like Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Eric Patterson, Gregorio Petit and Josh Donaldson. I would take that crew RIGHT NOW over what Houston will run out in April. Carlos Lee still patrols the outfield, but after him and Berkman, nobody scares you in that lineup. Matt Lindstrom is slated to close. Enough said.

* Players to Watch Out For:

At the Big League level, Hunter Pence intrigues me. He seems like a steady 30 2B/25 HR type of hitter and a good outfield defender, but not necessarily a superstar you can build your team around. There is no help coming from Triple-A - the highest OPS of any hitter from Round Rock with at least 150 at-bats was .765. Jason Castro is on a lot of people’s radar as the catcher of the future, but he’s a lot farther from being Major League ready that he’s being given credit for. You have to like Korean relief pitcher Chia-Jen Lo, if for no other reason than he uses “Low” by Flo Rida as his entry music. Classic.

* Best Case Scenario:

Oswalt returns to form, Wandy repeats, Myers finds second life, the youngsters hold their own, Pence-Berkman-Lee generate enough offense to win some games and the back end of the bullpen doesn’t self-destruct every third day. The team floats around even for a while, but finally realizes they can’t compete. They ride off quietly into fourth place in the Central, knowing that it won’t be until 2011 that Oswalt and Berkman will hit contract years (2012 for Lee) and maybe the Astros can actually sling them to a contender to help rebuild themselves to be competitive for, say, 2015.

* Worst Case Scenario:

Everything goes as above. The Astros are competitive enough near the break that ownership gives away their best (only?) remaining farm system pieces for Adrian Beltre in an ill-advised shot at a division crown. Failure, demise. The organization is set back an additional 2-3 years and will not have a chance to be competitive again for another decade. Read More!